[John V.]

Hi Gordon and fellow SummitQuest fans,

Ahead of the 30th anniversary of the real 1996 Everest Disaster, I built The Everest Engine—an AI model using Bayesian probability and Monte Carlo simulations to test historical survival theories on the mountain.

Ever since I picked it up as a kid at the 2002 Scholastic Book Fair, the Everest trilogy has been one of my absolute favorite series.

I fed the series (The Contest, The Climb, The Summit) into the Everest Engine's constraints to see how the character psychology held up to structural math. The AI simulations answered some of the biggest "what-ifs" of the series and revealed exactly how brilliant the character engineering was:

1. The "Canonical Four" was engineered for disaster.

The exact team chosen in the books (Dominic, Perry, Sammi, Tilt) yields a massive 25.8% sabotage rate across simulations. 

Perry's presence is the ultimate statistical catalyst: his panic requires the adults to leave the upper mountain. In short, Expedition Leader Cap Cicero's forced absence allows Tilt to operate completely unsupervised.

2. The Revelation: Removing Perry Noonan improves everything.

(Optimal Boot Camp Team: Chris, Dominic, Sammi, Tilt)

The most important thing the Engine answered is what happens when you alter the team: removing Perry fundamentally optimizes the conditions for everyone else.  By removing Perry, no one panics on the Lhotse Face. Cap Cicero remains with the team all the way to Camp 4. 

Cap's authoritative presence suppresses Tilt’s ability to tamper with the gear (sabotage drops to just 6.4%). Shielded by the adults and his older brother Chris, Dominic reaches the summit at much higher rates. 

The team battles only the stochastic weather, not each other.

3. Testing Cap Cicero's Decision

When Cap cuts Chris Alexis from the final team, he explicitly argues that Chris coddles Dominic and would hold the expedition back. Hardcoding Chris into the simulation allowed the system to mathematically test Cap Cicero’s hypothesis.

The simulations drafted the 3 remaining positions dynamically from the 7 available Boot Camp candidates.

(Note: Percentages reflect the frequency of outcomes when the character is actively drafted. Chris is present in 100% of simulations; variable characters appear in roughly 43% to 55% of simulations each).

Across 29,032 iterations, here are the Summit Success Rates:

• Tilt Crowley: 65.1% (Maintains elite physical performance)
• Chris Alexis [FIXED]: 62.4% (Heavily penalized by voluntarily aborting his own bids to rescue others)
• Sammi Moon: 51.2%
• Dominic Alexis: 38.5% (A massive drop. Chris's overprotectiveness actively suppresses Dominic's success rate)
• Bryn Fiedler: 36.4%
• Cameron Mackie: 25.1%
• Joey: 6.8%
• Perry Noonan: 3.7%

The data completely vindicates Cap Cicero. When Chris and Dominic are drafted together, Dominic’s summit success rate plummets to 38.5%. Chris’s hyper-vigilance prevents Dominic from pushing through the pain of his early HAPE symptoms. Chris saves Dominic’s health, but mathematically destroys the "youngest to summit" storyline before the team even reaches the upper mountain.

4. The Z-Man

In Korman’s canonical lore, Ethan Zaph (the “Z-man”) is the climbing prodigy who holds the record for the youngest person to ever summit Everest. If we remove the rival This Way Up team and hardcode Ethan Zaph into the simulation, he introduces a massive, stabilizing counterweight to the physical and psychological volatility of SummitQuest.

When older brother Chris Alexis is drafted alongside Ethan, Dominic benefits exponentially. Chris acts as a baseline emotional anchor, while Ethan acts as the ultimate physical anchor. In these specific permutations, Dominic’s summit success rate skyrockets to 86.5%.

Even if the fourth member is Tilt, the combined presence of Chris and Ethan entirely suppresses Tilt’s ability to successfully isolate or psychologically break Dominic.

5. The Golden Team: Chris Alexis, Dominic Alexis, Sammi Moon, Ethan Zaph.

This group accidentally forms a perfect role distribution. Ethan is the technical expert, Chris acts as the protective leader, Sammi provides the physical power, and Dominic is the motivational core.

More importantly, this removes highly destabilizing variables:

• No sabotage trigger (Tilt)
• No panic trigger (Perry)
• No severe physiological filters (Joey's nasal passages or Bryn's sleepwalking).

Without those triggers, the expedition’s biggest threat becomes only the mountain itself.

--

Gordon, if you’re reading this:

1. What was Joey's last name?
2. What was Cameron Mackie's issue?

Your psychological profiling of these teenagers over two decades ago was mathematically flawless.  Thank you for adding to my obsession that eventually led to The Everest Engine.

If anyone here loves real-world Everest history and data, I'm launching The Everest Engine to cross-examine the ghosts of the 1996 disaster.

 

PROLOGUE: THE EVEREST ENGINE

 

John, this is incredible. Thanks so much for sharing it with me. I'm so thrilled my books sparked a lifelong interest in you!

It's been a quarter century since I've worked on this series, so I'm not sure I recall the exact details. Wasn't Joey's last name something like Tanuda? And I believe Cameron got hurt - maybe a sprained ankle or broken foot. (Google might recall better than I do at this point.)

Can't wait to check out The Everest Engine!

----------Gordon Korman----------

[John V.]

Gordon,

I stand corrected, and your memory is doubly sharp! Joey Tanuda - p. 14.  Joey is first introduced as a roommate a couple of pages earlier, before the last name is introduced.

And Cameron suffered a serious ankle injury on p. 60.  (I have copies, rest assured.)

Restated: the gist of my question was whether Cameron Mackie was an androgynous naming tool in the creative process, but then I realized Alex, Bryn (as Bryan), Chris, Cameron, Perry... 

Here's my mention in the Everest Engine Prologue:

"...For me, the Everest obsession began at age six, when I made multiple trips to the Fernbank Museum in Atlanta with my cousins. I remember staring up at the IMAX screen, completely mesmerized as Liam Neeson’s voice guided us through the Himalayas' mystique.

Next, it was Gordon Korman’s Everest trilogy at the third-grade Scholastic Book Fair. When our teachers were working on basic spelling, kids on the playground were pretending to strap on crampons to ascend the Hillary Step and pushing each other off of a make-believe Kangshung Face instead of hot lava."

New working theory: The Everest trilogy is a pure, straight gateway to Jon Krakauer. 

Best,

John

[John]

Forensic empathy. That's the new subtext for the Everest Engine. (Had to get off Substack!). 

First case: comparing the 1996 Everest disaster (Andy Harris) to the Challenger shuttle explosion.

medium.com/the-everest-engine

From the third-grade book fair to a law office at 33, the Everest Trilogy stays on the bookshelf. Keep reading, and thanks again, Gordon!

(PS the Sherpa delicacy-Philly cheesesteak joke still gets me every time.)

- John V.